Takeaway Tuesday #2 9/6/2022

I hope you all had a great LDW. As always, any feedback on the format as it begins to shape up, please let me know.

Reorg Content (subscription required)

• Bausch Health's exchange offer was one of the most searched terms on Reorg last week. The Reorg analyst team put together an incredible exchange model that allows users to enter in their own assumptions. Our takeaway: "Assuming 100% participation...Reorg calculates that total debt would be reduced by $2.982 billion and that the net debt leverage ratio would decrease to 6.8x from 8x as of the end of the second quarter"

• Cineworld continues to be topical and one of the most searched companies on Reorg. The team put together a detailed waterfall recovery analysis. We are assuming a bankruptcy filing could occur before the end of this month. Given the complexity of the situation (Cineplex litigation) and capital/corporate structure, this is going to be a fascinating case.

Two Pieces of Content I Found Interesting

• The Humiliating History of the TSA - about 5 years ago, my oldest child had one of their toys taken away by a TSA officer in Chicago. In disgust, a letter was written to the TSA (utilizing the best 7 year old penmanship could offer). This article gives a detailed account of some of the crazy that goes on at the organization

• An Anatomy of Erasure: How a free and open Hong Kong became a police state - in 2019, I visited Reorg's Hong Kong offices two times. Once in June and again in November. Between those short couple of months, the world completely changed. We had numerous meetings cancelled in November because of tear gas in offices. It was so sad to see. 

Something I bet you didn't know you could do on Reorg

One thing that is just starting to get air in the mainstream media is spread widening of the direct lending market. New issues are coming much wider in terms of spread relative to this time last year - underwriting is tighter and its affecting everything from PE IRR calcs to cash flow to service debt etc. 

A couple years ago, Reorg built what I think is the best and most comprehensive database on the BDC market. We index every BDC that files with the SEC (both publicly traded and privately held) and updated their numbers and marks almost instantaneously when an SEC filing occurs.

On Reorg BDC's page, I can isolate all collateral in the BDCs that have been marked down or marked at a level that would signal distress. I could compare marks across various BDCs. I can see new loans coming in and loans that have exited to get a sense for how spreads have changed. And if I'm a lawyer or advisor, this helps me get in front of lenders / companies that may need an assist with liability management / formal restructuring. Or if I'm a lender, I can uncover companies that may need emergency capital to fend the current storm.

Give it a try and if you have any questions please reach out to your CSM at Reorg.

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Takeaway Tuesday #1 8/30/2022

Welcome to the inaugural Takeaway Tuesday (or Tuesday Takeaways...still haven't decided). As a reminder the format is:

• Two Reorg articles, one performing credit/one non performing credit
• Two articles I found interesting this week
• One thing I bet you didn't know you could do on Reorg

Reorg Content (subscription required)

• The incredible saga of 3M ($MMM) on both the combat litigation and the potential monsoon of issues from PFOA and PFOS designations...or how fast can $70B of market cap / or an IG rating get eliminated...

• Regulatory Coverage: EPA Proposes to Designate PFOA, PFOS ‘Forever’ Chemicals, Including 3M Products, as ‘Hazardous Substances,’ Enabling Government to Recover Cleanup Costs From Companies
• Aearo Bankruptcy Court Denies 3M Litigation Injunction Because Prepetition Funding Agreement Not Contingent on Injunction, Says Size of Mass Tort MDL Alone Insufficient to Justify Protecting Nondebtors
• Aearo Technologies Seeks Certification for Direct Review By Bankruptcy Court to 7th Circuit Court of Appeals of Bankruptcy Court’s Order Denying Extension of Injunction to 3M Combat Arms Earplugs MDL
• And many more...

• Diamond Sports, one of, if not the most topical name in stressed/distressed credit - Reorg penned a piece of hypothetical bankruptcy catalyst considerations. One takeaway we had: "If DSG were to reject certain unprofitable team rights contracts per section 365(d)(2), those teams would need to arrange for backup production capabilities, distributor relationships and advertisement deals. Such operational complexity while teams would need to fund their costs, such as payroll, might also place Diamond into a more favorable position to push back on its existing contract terms."

Two Pieces of Content You may Find Interesting

1. China on the tightrope - I learned so much from this article and admittedly I don't think people are talking about this enough. Global demand destruction for everything could have serious deflationary consequences
2. Google Doc on Conversation Starters - Put together by Rob Walker who writes The Art of Noticing. My favorite: If you did not have to sleep, how would you spend the extra 8 hours?

Something I bet you didn't know you could do on Reorg

When I was an analyst I would run redlines on anything from 10Qs vs last quarter 10Qs, to amendments to other disclosures. On Reorg you can do this under our SEC Filings technology

First click on a 10-Q...then click Compare Documents

Pick the document you want to compare your document to....(I did the most recent Q versus same quarter last year Q) and boom....

If you have any questions, you can always reach out to your Customer Success Manager at Reorg.

If you guys have any ideas on how to improve this format, please hit me up on Twitter (@ddinvesting) or my email. In future, I'll try to incorporate some video here as well. Thanks all

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Tuesday Takeaways Preview - we blast off tomorrow

The last couple of months have been busy. Feels like summer just getting started...

One thing I learned from the process (I'll figure out the best medium to discuss it at length in the future) is Reorg is still regarded as a stressed / distressed-only shop. While we built the company starting from hard core bankruptcies like Lehman, Madoff, etc, our coverage (and technology + product offering) now spans over 5,000 credits globally.

In other words, awareness is one of Reorg's biggest challenge. Not just coverage but technology and product wise as well.

And because I've never been more excited about the company or its prospects (no, I'm not riding off into the sunset), I thought I would work to bring that awareness to the forefront the good old fashion way: blogging. If my kids taught me to use TikTok I would do that too...

On most weeks I'll be posting "Tuesday Takeaways" (or Takeaway Tuesdays...?) - I'll post three things each week:

1. Two Reorg article links (one performing, one non performing)
2. Two non-Reorg articles I think you would find interesting
3. Something you may or may not know you can do on Reorg with screenshots

If you have feedback on this format, let me know and I'll incorporate as much as I can. Honestly, if you told me 10 years ago when I was first showing people the Reorg docket technology, we'd be where we are today I'd call you crazy - I can't begin to express my appreciation and gratitude to everyone that has supported us along this journey. And I am ever grateful to my incredible team of nearly 300 Reorgers around the world that work tirelessly to put out the best product possible.

See you tomorrow

Kent

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FTLive Reorg Global Alternative Credit Summit

Hey everyone - Wanted to keep you up on an exciting event Reorg is putting together with the FT on May 4th and 5th - I will be kicking off the NY event and hope to see you there!

As background on the idea: Private credit is booming with estimates suggesting the market is now worth more than US$1 trillion. Having moved to the mainstream, with many buyside firms establishing direct lending or private credit arms, this asset class is creating changes in the debt capital markets, as investors seek out steady and healthy returns, and borrowers opt for new non-bank sources of finance.

The market is already enormous and GROWING. There are interesting questions to consider though: Despite ample capital, there structures didn't really exist at scale during the GFC and as or if the global credit cycle turns what are the implications for recoveries and  how processes play out.

When thinking about the conference agenda, and speaking to participants, we wanted to tackle some of the below:

•  To what extent has it matured to meet the risk and return profile of an increasingly sophisticated pool of global investors? 
• Can current rates of return be sustained in developed markets, against a fast changing and uncertain macro-economic and geo-political background? 
• To what extent will Asia follow a similar growth path?
• As demand for direct lending, distressed debt, structured credit and leverage finance increases, where will new avenues for growth emerge?
• How concerned should investors be about warnings around systemic risks, market opacity, standards and illiquidity issues? 
• Where will the regulation of private credit come from?

In partnership with Reorg, FTLive's Global Alternative Credit Summit will tackle these and other major questions. The summit will bring together leading investors, borrowers, lenders, regulators and advisers from the US, EMEA and Asia. Our agenda looks at how private credit is evolving and shaking up debt markets, assessing the key drivers behind its current rate of growth, and where the industry will go from here within the backdrop of rising inflation, war in Europe and the aftermath of the global pandemic.

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When: Two days of streamed global content May 4-5, 2022, including in-person VIP sessions and networking in London and New York.

Register at https://alternativecredit.live.ft.com/home using the promotion code Reorg15 to access a 15% discount for all digital content.

I hope to see you all there!

Kent

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The CoVax Files

Hey everyone - First off, Happy New Year! 2020 was a wild ride and 2021 is off to a wilder start. Here's to some normalcy in the coming months... 

Late last year I found myself wanting more information on the development and run-up the the COVID vaccines. I was not getting enough information from the NYT, WSJ, Washington Post, sell side reports, etc. Further, like most investors or business leaders I do not find medical journals accessible. 

In my opinion the COVID vaccine and potential therapeutics is the only way out of this mess we find ourselves. 

Given that huge gap of information I worked with an amazing journalist, Surani Fernando, to produce a podcast on the vaccine, its development, clinical trials, distribution, manufacturing, how it will deal with mutations and variants, etc. We will explore in future episodes logistic issues, continuing research in the field, the Biden administration's plan of 100 million in 100 days, etc. 

If you want more information on the COVD vaccine, please give our podcast, The Covax Files, a listen.

• Apple Podcast: The CoVax Files
• Google Podcast: The CoVax Files
• Sticher: The CoVax Files

Please let me know any feedback you - excited for each of you to learn more. 

-Kent

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